Modeling, Simulation, and Validation of a System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Social Capital Efficiency in the Iranian Insurance Industry
Keywords:
social trust, Social capital, organizational efficiency, insurance industry, systems dynamics, dynamic modelingAbstract
This study aims to design, simulate, and validate an indigenous dynamic model to explain and enhance social capital efficiency in Iran’s insurance industry. An exploratory sequential mixed-methods design was employed. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with insurance experts and thematic analysis yielded 21 key indicators, which were screened using the fuzzy Delphi technique. Subsequently, a system dynamics model was developed in Vensim and structurally validated through Sterman and Barlas validation tests. Scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis were conducted to examine long-term system behavior. Results demonstrate that social capital operates as a dynamic, multi-dimensional system structured across five main dimensions. The model incorporates four reinforcing loops and one balancing loop. Strengthening the “trust and resilience” variable increased overall efficiency by approximately 20%, whereas cognitive capital decline reduced efficiency by nearly 10%. Economic evaluation revealed a benefit–cost ratio exceeding 1.8 and an internal rate of return above 20% in the long run. Active management of social capital is a critical driver of resilience, operational efficiency, and competitiveness in Iran’s insurance industry, and the proposed model provides a robust decision-support framework for policymakers and managers.
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