مدل‌سازی اشتغال استان سیستان و بلوچستان با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم

محمدعلی  عرب; محبعلی رهدار; مجید  وزیری سرشک; مهدی  کرباسیان

Authors

Mohammad Ali Arab Department of Industrial Engineering, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9791-5263
Mohebali Rahdar Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Shahid Nikbakht Faculty of Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3099
Majid Vaziri Sareshk Department of Industrial Engineering, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8688-4702
Mehdi Karbasian Full Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9132-5078

Keywords:

Employment, Systems Thinking, System Dynamics, Sistan and Baluchestan

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and validate a system dynamics framework for analyzing, simulating, and scenario-testing the employment problem in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. This applied study used a descriptive simulation-based design. Data were collected through library research, statistical documents, interviews, and expert consultation with eight specialists selected through snowball sampling. The model was structured around two main subsystems: population and the labor market. The variables included total population, births, deaths, migration, labor force, public-sector employment, private-sector employment, liquidity, income, investment, and government expenditure. Causal-loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams were developed, structurally validated, and simulated in Vensim to examine future employment-related scenarios. The simulation outputs indicated that increasing government facilities and budget produced a strong and persistent rise in labor demand, with the shock effect remaining in the system until the end of the simulation horizon. Increasing public expenditures also raised labor demand, but the effect was weaker and more gradual. Increasing the private sector’s contribution enhanced labor demand, although it only slightly reduced the accumulated stock of specialized labor. Growth in social liquidity showed the strongest positive effect on demand for specialized labor. Conversely, increases in income or labor productivity had an inverse effect on labor demand and produced only a minor increase in the active specialized labor force. The system dynamics approach demonstrated that employment in Sistan and Baluchestan is shaped by feedback interactions among demographic change, investment, liquidity, government policy, and private-sector capacity. Therefore, effective employment policy should combine targeted financial facilities, productive investment, liquidity management, private-sector strengthening, and demographic vulnerability control.

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