Futures Studies of Iran’s Education System on the Path to Sustainable Development: An Analysis of Structures, Drivers, and Key Actors
Keywords:
Scenario planning, Drivers of transformation, Sustainable development, Education system, Futures studiesAbstract
This study aims to explain possible futures of Iran’s education system by 2036 and analyze the role of deep structures, transformation drivers, and key actors within sustainable development. This research adopts a strategic futures studies approach using a qualitative–analytical mixed method. First, Causal Layered Analysis was applied to explore dominant discourses, metaphors, and underlying structures. Next, structural analysis using MICMAC identified and categorized key drivers and strategic uncertainties. Actor analysis through the MACTOR model examined stakeholders’ power, interests, and interaction patterns. Finally, findings were integrated to develop four future-oriented scenarios. Data were collected from policy documents, literature, and expert input from 20 specialists. Findings indicate that major challenges originate from traditionalist discourses and centralized governance structures. Structural analysis reveals digital transformation and governance models as the most influential drivers. Actor analysis shows government dominance, with increasing influence of private and technological actors. These dynamics produce four scenarios: smart and innovative education, centralized digital education, status quo continuation, and widening educational inequality. A desirable future depends on aligning digital transformation, governance reform, and stakeholder participation, enabling forward-looking policies toward sustainable development.
Downloads
References
Chigbu, B. I., & Makapela, S. L. (2025). Data-driven leadership in higher education: advancing sustainable development goals and inclusive transformation. Sustainability, 17(7), 3116. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17073116
Chusniyah, A., Makruf, I., & Supriyanto. (2025). Two decades of sustainable development studies in higher education management: a bibliometric analysis. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 26(3), 614-632. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-11-2023-0546
Damiani, V., & Fraillon, J. (2025). Civic and citizenship education, global citizenship education, and education for sustainable development: an analysis of their integrated conceptualization and measurement in the international civic and citizenship education study (ICCS) 2016 and 2022. Large-scale Assessments in Education, 13(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40536-025-00237-y
Dehvari, M., & Saeidi, M. (2025). Investigating the Role of Teachers in the Education Process of Sustainable Development in Iran. Seventh National Conference on Humanities and Education with a Focus on Sustainable Development, Tehran.
Enemuo, C. J., & Muogbo, U. F. (2025). Digital Divide In The Provision Of Ethical And Values Education: Re-Engineering For Sustainable National Development. UNIZIK Journal of STM Education(2), 49-57. https://www.academia.edu/143346801/DIGITAL_DIVIDE_IN_THE_PROVISION_OF_ETHICAL_AND_VALUES_EDUCATION_RE_ENGINEERING_FOR_SUSTAINABLE_NATIONAL_DEVELOPMENT
Filho, W. L., Eustachio, J. H. P. P., Avila, L. V., Dinis, M. A. P., Hernandez‐Diaz, P. M., Batista, K., إ, B., & Abubakar, I. R. (2025). Enhancing the contribution of higher education institutions to sustainable development research: A focus on post‐2015 SDGs. Sustainable Development, 33(2), 1745-1757. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3184
Li, M., Zeng, Z., & Tai, A. P. K. (2024). Sustainable Development Goals Course Inventory: A Preliminary Study at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Icnaeducation, 1(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.33422/icnaeducation.v1i1.531
Lomachinska, I., Dobrodum, O., Ishchuk, O., Patlaichuk, O., Stupak, O., Shnitser, M., & Salo, H. (2025). Digital Citizenship and Knowledge Management in Education: Strategic Pathways to Sustainable Development. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 14(2), 747. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2025.v14n2p747
Mahere, S. M. (2024). Contributions of Higher Education Reforms to Sustainable Development Goals: Some Examples and Experiences From the Department of Educational Administration and Leadership, Faculty of Education, University of Zimbabwe. Journal of Adult and Continuing Education. https://doi.org/10.1177/14779714241261063
Motavalli, A. A., & Shiri, T. (2026). Macro Policies of the Fundamental Transformation Document and Their Impact on the Development of the National Education System. Education, Training and Sustainable Development, 4(2), 1-15.
Mutmainnah, M., Waston, W., & Sholahuddin, M. (2025). Integrating Religious and Economic Education for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): An Analysis of Entrepreneurial Models in Indonesian Pesantren. Profetika Jurnal Studi Islam, 25(02), 287-302. https://doi.org/10.23917/profetika.v25i02.7801
Mwakabenga, R. J. (2025). Sustainable In-Service Teacher Training Programmes in Tanzania: Harnessing Mentorship for Continued Professional Learning. Papers in Education and Development, 1(aop), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1163/26650746-20250005
Narong, D. K. (2025). Business and management education for sustainability: A state-of-the-art review of literature post-UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2015-2023). The International Journal of Management Education, 23(2), 101115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijme.2024.101115
Oleksandr, P., Харченко, А., & Квасник, О. (2024). Education as a Goal and Factor of Sustainable Development. Theory and Practice of Social Systems Management(3), 100-112. https://doi.org/10.20998/2078-7782.2024.3.08
Pathak, S., & Jain, V. (2025). Transformation of Quality Education through E-Learning for Sustainable Development. In Transforming Vocational Education and Training Using AI (pp. 211-248). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-8252-3.ch009
Popescu, C. R. G., & Verma, R. (2025). Quality Education to Meet the Sustainable Development Goals. 233-242. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-8679-8.ch011
Purnawirawan, O., Sutadji, E., Mariana, R. R., Elmunsyah, H., & Ichwanto, M. A. (2025). Development and Implementation of Entrepreneurship Learning Design Procedures Based on Digital Skills in Vocational High Schools to Support the Quality of Education in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Journal of Lifestyle and SDGs Review, 5(2), e03668-e03668. https://doi.org/10.47172/2965-730X.SDGsReview.v5.n02.pe03668
Rasouli, M., Tari, G., & Baghaei, H. (2024). Structural Modeling of School Managers' Competencies as a Driver for Sustainable Development [Research Article]. Iranian Journal of Educational Sociology, 7(2), 124-131. https://doi.org/10.61838/kman.ijes.7.2.15
Rodríguez-Zurita, D., Jaya-Montalvo, M., Moreira-Arboleda, J., Raya-Diez, E., & Carrión-Mero, P. (2025). Sustainable development through service learning and community engagement in higher education: a systematic literature review. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 26(1), 158-201. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-10-2023-0461
Seminikhyna, N. M., & Lutsenko, O. (2024). The Role of Education in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Innovate Pedagogy(77), 221-226. https://doi.org/10.32782/2663-6085/2024/77.44
Setiabudi, D. I., & Ismi, S. F. (2025). Analysis of the Alignment of OBE-Based Curriculum With the Principles of Sustainable Development Goals in Higher Education. Icgel, 2(1), 46-58. https://doi.org/10.62951/icgel.v2i1.147
Zhang, Q., & Zhao, L. (2025). Integrating Ecological Philosophy Into Ideological and Political Education in Universities: Bridging With Biomechanics for Sustainable Development and Human Health Considerations. Molecular & Cellular Biomechanics, 22(2), 710. https://doi.org/10.62617/mcb710
